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Premier League 2019-2020 Prediction
Jan 25, 2020
One minute read

The model was created based on this paper with a minor modification and is described below. You can find the short explanation of the model and the modification I made on this post.

eq1

The Predictions

The outcome is predicted by simulating the remaining matches as many as 10,000 times. All matches results from 20182019 and matches played 20192020 are used by the model to measure each team’s strength compared to others.

Initially, I planned to update the prediction and graphs below every week. The prediction is supposed to be automatically triggered and running every Monday at 4 AM. However, looking at the number below, we know that Liverpool will definitely win the League this season. Liverpool is also looking very sharp and improves dramatically from last season. As a consequence, the model might underestimate what Liverpool can do this season caused indirectly by their last season performance.


Anyway, congrats, Liverpool!

Probability of Winning the League

win

Expected Points at the End of Season

pts

Expected Goals at the End of Season

goal


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